Nuclear Weapon Breakout Scenarios: Correcting the Record

First, Glaser and Kemp ignore the potential for breakout using a covert facility which would yield weapon grade uranium from a stock of low enriched uranium (LEU) significantly faster than their estimates, based on enrichment activity at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant. Though the paper’s summary and conclusion imply that the possibility of undeclared facilities or feedstock have been incorporated into the analysis, only on page three does the reader learn that they have been excluded, which skews the paper’s conclusions. While ignoring one of the most likely breakout scenarios, namely the use of an undeclared facility, the authors make it appear that far less likely scenarios, in particular the exclusive use of Natanz for batch recycling, are the primary avenues for breakout.